40 POINTS???
The MLS season is quickly coming to a close with around 4-6 games left per team. No one has clinched a playoff spot yet but it looks pretty clear that Houston and Columbus will make the post season. The rest is still a toss up. Historically, the magic number “40″ was the bench mark for making the playoffs. I don’t know if that holds true anymore.
Around mid season I mapped what the Rapids needed to do to get the 40 points necessary to earn a playoff spot. Now it looks like they will need to do a little more since it seems likely that at least 2 40+ teams might miss the playoffs. Here is the playoff picture right now.
Current playoff standings:
Columbus 43
Houston 43
LA 41
Chicago 40
Seattle 38
Colorado 37
Chivas 37
DC 36
Salt Lake 34
Toronto 34
New England 34
Kansas 30
Dallas 27
San Jose 21
NY 17
Right now their are four teams that have already reached the number 40. Just below them are 9 teams that could reach the number 40, considering that there are anywhere from 18 to 12 points left to be won by these teams.
Not really in the race:
Realistically, I’d say that Kansas City and Dallas won’t make it to 40. Kansas still has Houston, Chivas, Seattle, DC, Colorado on their schedule. Earning 10 pts isn’t impossible, but each of those teams is battling for a playoff spot and won’t give anything away. Dallas has an even tougher road as they will need to be almost perfect in their next 5 games earning at least 13 out of 15 points. It is very unlikely.
Holding on:
That leaves Salt Lake, Toronto, and New England, each sitting only 6 points off 40, in the mix for a playoff spot. In the last 4 games, Toronto still has two home games, and San Jose and NY on their schedule. Salt Lake still has to face Colorado, Dallas away, Toronto away, and NY. They should be able to find six points but I wouldn’t hold my breath. New England is in the best position as they have 6 games left to find six points. It won’t be easy as they face Columbus twice, Chicago, Colorado, Seattle, and Dallas in their final stretch but the odds are in their favor.
Sitting in the top 8:
Houston and Columbus, although not locked, look destined for a playoff spot. LA and Chicago are not far behind but with the way the season has played out they could still miss the playoffs if they slip into poor form in the final stretch.
LA will need to be in top form in their last 4 games to hold on to their playoff hopes. LA still has Chicago, Columbus, San Jose, and Houston on their schedule. It is conceivable that LA will not earn another point this season. Two losses and two wins by the teams below them will see LA drop to the final playoff spot.
Chicago plays LA, Toronto, Seattle, and Chivas to end their season. Like LA, they could lose all of those games and find themselves out of the playoffs. I bet Chicago will at least take home 4 points in their final stretch.
DC United has the odds stacked in their favor as they play 3 of their last 4 games at home. DC still has Champions League play and the inevitable fatigue that goes along with it. But 4 points should not be hard to come by considering they host San Jose and Chivas.
Seattle and Colorado are on the verge of making the playoffs. Before the season started few people would have believed that either of these teams would be playoff contenders but in the final stretch they seem poised for the post season.
Seattle sits 3rd in the West and has 3 games on the road at New England, Kansas, and Columbus before they close with Dallas at home. It’s a tough schedule and the Seattle has been anything but consistent this year. I can see them squeezing 6 points out of their last 4 games.
Colorado has 5 games left including two home games against New England and San Jose. They only need 3 more points to get to 40 but there is a good chance they will finish somewhere around 44-45 points. They other 3 teams they play to close out the season are Real Salt Lake, Dallas, and Kansas City.
Chivas USA started off the season in stellar form but have been on a nose dive since June. The free fall has slowed a bit but they aren’t looking like a playoff team yet. Luckily for them they still have 6 games to play 4 of which are at home. They will finish their season against NY, DC, Kansas, San Jose, Chicago, and Houston. Chivas should get 6-8 points from their final stretch and secure a playoff spot.
Who will be in come October?
Houston, Columbus, Chicago, LA, Chivas, Seattle, Colorado, and New England.
LA should hold on to claim a wild card spot. While New England and Chivas will take advantage of their games in hand to pass up teams like DC United, Toronto, and Salt Lake. Seattle and Colorado look likely to be in the post season based on current standings and remaining schedule.
Who will be out?
DC, Kansas City, Toronto, Real Salt Lake, NY, Dallas, and San Jose.
Toronto, Real Salt Lake, and DC United are likely to have 40 points and not make the playoffs. DC’s commitment to Champions League play will be the death of their playoff hopes as they won’t have enough in the tank to get that extra win they need to qualify. Salt Lake and Toronto might be too far behind to mount a run for the playoffs. Although they are only a few points out, their upcoming schedule, current form, and the fact that 3 teams have played less games than them will foreclose on their post season chances.
Share your thoughts on the MLS playoff race?