The Rapids didn’t do themselves any favors this weekend by losing to an in-form FC Dallas team.  Luckily the Rapids still have a shot if they can get a victory this weekend against Real Salt Lake.  Beating RSL is very possible but I am starting to question whether or not the Rapids are really a playoff team.  With Colin Clark, Jaime Smith, and Jacob Peterson healthy I’d have no question but right now the Rapids look lost and without ideas.

No team can stay hot or inform all season.  Houston and Columbus had a terrible start to the season but are now clearly the better teams in the league.  Chivas and Seattle were red hot to start the season but crashed badly in midseason and have only recently started to regain form.  Teams like Dallas and San Jose decided to wait until August to start playing. The Rapids have been mostly consistent with only a few peaks and valleys here and there.

The best way to think about it is this. A team earns a playoff spot by a season worth of performances, 8 months to put together 40+ points.  The Rapids are kind of looking like the NY Red Bulls of last season.  NY put together a killer summer before they dipped drastically in form in the last third of the season and barely squeaked into the playoffs. NY went on to play in the MLS Cup, so there is hope.

The Rapids playoff picture after this weekend’s games

The Rapids lock up a playoff spot with a win. If they tie or lose, here are the scenarios:

First Real Salt Lake will jump the Rapids if they win by 3 or more goals. If RSL only wins by 2 the Rapids stay higher on the table based on a better away record.

If the Rapids lose and all other teams with 39 points tie (DC, NE, Dallas, and Toronto), the Rapids will be placed higher than DC United, Dallas, New England, and Toronto based on goal differential.  If the Rapids tie and the teams with 39 points tie, the Rapids go to the playoffs.

If the Rapids lose or tie and 2 of the teams with 39 points win, the Rapids are out.

Here are the key matches for this coming week, none of the teams in the teams trying to lock up a playoff spot play each other except the Rapids and RSL.  So there are still 7 teams in the hunt for a playoff spot.

Thursday:

Chivas at Chicago, 8pm EST ESPN 2

Saturday:

Toronto at NY, 7:30pm EST

DC United at KC, 8:30pm EST

New England at Columbus, 9pm EST

Colorado at Salt Lake, 9pm EST FSC, FSE

FC Dallas at Seattle, 10:30pm EST

Sunday:

New England v. Columbus, 5pm EST ESPN 2

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